Ahh, the coaching carousel.
It’s one of the things in sports that we’ve grown to massively love. We hate just the smallest changes with our lives. Hey, it’s human nature. But boy, do we enjoy the chaos of a head coaching change that a franchise or university undergoes, and even more, we love to call for the firing of a coach if things aren’t going our team’s way. It’s all apart of sports fandom.
And then you have the betting community, who has no problem profiting off of a head coach’s misery. That’s exactly why he have prop bets such as ‘Head Coach To Get Fired First In The 2019 NFL Season‘.
For example, the online sportsbook Bovada has Jay Gruden (Washington Redskins) placed as the favorite to be the first head coach ousted at +333 odds, while Pat Shurmur (New York Giants) comes in second place at +850. Coming in third, we have Matt Patricia (Detroit Lions) set at +900, while a three-way tie happens for fourth between Bill O’ Brien (Houston Texans), Dan Quinn (Atlanta Falcons) and Doug Marrone (Jacksonville Jaguars) at +1200 odds. For the No. 7 spot, we have another tie between Jason Garrett (Dallas Cowboys) and Mike Zimmer (Minnesota Vikings) with a +1500 figure. Rounding out the top 10, Adam Gase (New York Jets) and Brian Flores (Miami Dolphins) are tied for ninth at +2000 odds.
Let’s go over the top three favorites in the betting odds in depth — Jay Gruden (+333), Pat Shurmur (+850) and Matt Patricia (+900) — and then we’ll go a little into some of the other favorites, as well as the rest of the slate and their odds. Afterwards, I’ll give you my betting prediction for who the first fired head coach is going to be, as well as my long shot pick to ride with for the major payday, and let’s have fun and bet on football
Jay Gruden (+333) is in his sixth season as head coach of the Washington Redskins now, and he only has one playoff appearance to show for it. That would be back in 2015 after securing a winning 9-7 record before ultimately losing in the NFC Wild Card round to the Green Bay Packers.
There is a lot of energy in D.C. about the future, however, and this is because of the rookie quarterback-running back duo of Dwayne Haskins and Derrius Guice. Despite the talent on the team though, it may not be good enough for Gruden to keep his job if the campaign gets off to a bad start. They would suffer a 32-27 defeat to the Eagles, but to their credit, ‘Fly Eagles Fly’ are a pretty good team and it was in Philadelphia. You’ve got to give them a break on this one, but Gruden needs to start producing victories for the Skins. With that being said, when you look at their roster (both on offense and defense), you see that things may go more south than north.
On Sunday, the New York Giants would officially begin life without their former superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., and it would get off to a horrible start with a hammering 35-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. With things looking like they could get bad, the Giants may find themselves in the same spot as the Washington Redskins. Dave Gettleman, the general manager of New York, would take massive heat after he would select Duke University’s Daniel Jones with the sixth pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. It got even worse when he said he would sit Jones for years behind an aging Eli Manning. Jones would manage to play a little bit in Week 1 (3/4, 17 YDS), but it would come way too late in the previously-mentioned 35-17 stomping.
With the Giants seemingly still being all in on Manning, it’s obvious that it’s going to be a long campaign for New York. As far as head coach Pat Shurmur (+850) is concerned, it doesn’t appear that he’s a bad pick for the job, but with as horrendous as the offense is (with the exception of Saquon Barkley) and the defense in turmoil, Shurmur may be unluckily let go as apart of a GM-coach firing. It honestly appears that the New York Giants have no idea what they’re doing at the moment.
Despite the Detroit Lions finishing with a losing 6-10 record in 2018 that would see them out of the playoffs (again), there’s still a lot faith in head coach Matt Patricia (+900) from Mo-Town. And to his credit, a near-win on the road on Sunday would also help his cause, drawing 27-27 with the Arizona Cardinals.
During the offseason, the Lions would go out and drastically improve their roster after some acquisitions. Now I’m not saying I think Detroit will compete for the NFC North championship or anything, but they should pull in a good enough season to see Patricia retain his job. And after all, Patricia comes from the ranks of Bill Belichick, it’s worth investment of time into this guy.
Don’t be surprised to see Bill O Brien’s odds drop. On Monday night, they would nearly pull out a win against the Saints in New Orleans, but lose by a 30-28 score after a miracle 58-yard field goal from Saints’ kicker Wil Lutz. It wasn’t a game that they weren’t supposed to win anyways, so, despite the 0-1 start, the Houston Texans are still in good shape. Not only will they be a good football team this season, but they’ll most likely be your AFC South champions. As a result, I’m not seeing Bill O’Brien coming anywhere close to being fired. Stay away from this pick.
Now with Dann Quinn, on the other hand, he would be an excellent long shot pick to make in this prop bet. In Week 1, the Atlanta Falcons would get hammered by the Minnesota Vikings, 28-12. I understand it was just one game, but the blowout loss has brought some hefty concerns for Atlanta as the season progresses. I still expect the Falcons to be doing their thing to compete for a spot in the postseason, and that’s based off of their talent, and if they’re unable to make the playoffs as expected, Arthur Blank could be looking for a new head coach.
With an already elite defense and the acquisition of Nick Foles as their franchise quarterback, expectations were set pretty high for the Jacksonville Jaguars coming into 2019. However, things would get off to a terrible start when they would suffer a 40-26 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 and would also have to place Foles on IR. They do expect him to be back this season, but before those plans can become a reality, the Jaguars need to be pulling in victories to still have them competing for the playoffs. If not, it could be Doug Marrone’s job.
When it comes to Jason Garrett and his odds, I’m pretty surprised to see him this high lingering among the favorites to be fired — especially first. At the same time, I’m not shocked at all, because after all, this is Jerry’s World. At the moment, Garret’s job security should be fine. To begin things, they would shoot out the gate with a 35-17 blowout win over the New York Giants to start out 1-0. With their usual talent of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott (who is happier after his extension) and their defense, Dallas is poised to have a great season. Stay away from Garrett.
The Minnesota Vikings would get off to a great start to the season by defeating the Atlanta Falcons, 28-12, but remember, this is just one game. If inconsistency strikes the Vikings like last season, Zimmer’s job will be in severe trouble, especially if their hot-cold results last for two consecutive years. The Vikings certainly have the talent, both offensively and defensively, to make a run into the postseason, and the expectations are high (again) across Minneapolis and with pundits. If Zimmer doesn’t deliver on those expectations this season, he’ll surely be gone.
With Adam Gase, I don’t think it matters how he does at all this season. With him doing quite well, considering, with the massively limited tools that he had with the Miami Dolphins, I think the New York Jets will give him at least three seasons to build something, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more. Gase is a good head coach and would get his era with the Jets underway with a 17-16 win over the Buffalo Bills. I don’t know how much he can do with New York, but talent is certainly there to achieve wins. Stay far, far away from an Adam Gase bet.
Though Brian Flores isn’t a great hire like an Adam Gase, at least in my opinion, I think Flores’ job is as safe as Gase’s because of it being their first season with their new team. The Miami Dolphins would get off to a horrendous start to begin the season, nearly allowing the Baltimore Ravens to put up 60 points on them in a 59-10 loss. However, Miami hasn’t exactly kept it a secret that they’re pretty much tanking to land the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. With that being said, the Dolphins will stick with Flores, no problem. Keep your money away here too.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of those organizations that seem to always win, and as a result, seem to always let their head coach go out on their terms — especially when your head coach has put up a career record of 125-67-1 and also brought a Super Bowl championship to Pittsburgh like Mike Tomlin has. They may have gotten crushed, 33-3, by the New England Patriots to begin the season, but Tomlin’s job with the Steelers is as about as safe as Antonio Brown never being an Oakland Raider. Take these +2000 odds and throw them in the trash.
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