I have some major breaking news for you: The New England Patriots are an extraordinarily heavy favorite to win Super Bowl LIV. Yeah, I’m sure you guys are really surprised by that. (Obvious sarcasm)
According to the online sportsbook BetOnline, the New England Patriots place as the top favorites at +220 odds, with the New Orleans Saints behind them in the second position at +500. In the third spot, the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers are in a tie with a marking of +800, with the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs rounding out the top five in another tie for fifth place at +1400 odds.
As far as the rest of the top 10 is concerned, the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Baltimore Ravens start us out in another tie for seventh place at +1800, while the Philadelphia Eagles round things out at +2200 odds.
With the Patriots, not only are they heavy favorites to win Super Bowl LIV, but their price to win the “big game” continues to get lower and lower as the season progresses. Literally every week, the profitability and value of betting on New England just drains. Last week, in particular, the Patriots were placed at +240, but after rolling over the Cleveland Browns in 27-13 fashion, they would then drop down to their current +220 figure.
And why shouldn’t their value drop? Tom Brady and the Pats have been on an absolute tear this season, shooting out to an 8-0 start for the third time in the history of the franchise and it’s looking like it’s going to be an easy road to winning the AFC Championship and achieving another Super Bowl appearance.
Say what you want about Patrick Mahomes eventually coming back this season, but how healthy will he be exactly? And if he does come back healthy, how will he be in postseason competition fresh off of a serious knee injury? I just don’t see Mahomes and the Chiefs being effective enough to take out the New England Patriots, not this season. Not with their circumstances and how dominant the Patriots have been. It’s a clear road.
As far as any other AFC competition taking out New England, that’s not happening. See what I mean? It truly is a clear path to Super Bowl LIV for the New England Patriots.
As far as the rest of the National Football League is concerned, you have teams such as the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers who have dropped down the odds due to embarrassing losses. For the Panthers, they would get blown out to the San Francisco 49ers, 51-13, while the Buffalo Bills would take a pounding to the Philadelphia Eagles, 31-13 — let’s stick with the Bills for a minute due to their “great” showing this season, we’ll get to the Carolina Panthers later.
The reason for the quotations is because of Buffalo and their 5-2 start to the season. Yeah, when you first take a glance at it, everything looks good. With that being said though, their wins have came against the bottom half of the league against teams such as the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants.
The rest of the Bills’ schedule is similar as well with there not being much strong competition in their way, so Buffalo making the playoffs shouldn’t be much of a problem. As far as their Super Bowl chances are concerned, however, the oddsmakers aren’t getting a good vibe with the Bills at all. After they would take a loss to Philadelphia last week, Buffalo would shoot down from an already hefty +3500 to an even larger +5000.
With Cam Newton being out of action due to an injury this season, the Carolina Panthers have been forced to rely on Kyle Allen at the quarterback position. For the most part, Allen has done a wonderful job for the Panthers and the team as a whole were looking like they were building up something special. Yeah, that all evaporated quickly when they got absolutely tore up by the San Francisco 49ers in a 51-13 loss.
Last week, Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey was completely shut down by the 49ers defense, and when that happened, Carolina would then be forced to depend on Allen. The one-dimensional gameplan didn’t go so well for the Panthers when Allen would throw for a total of three interceptions, marking his worst performance as a NFL professional.
Carolina would then decline in the odds similar to Buffalo dropping from a +3500 figure to +5000. If Cam Newton does happen to return from his injury and it goes successful, the overall team of the Panthers doesn’t necessarily look like a real option to win the NFC conference to enter the Super Bowl. And as you see, the oddsmakers get that completely.
Let’s go over the favorites to win Super Bowl LIV, review the betting odds, and then afterwards, I’ll be giving you my betting prediction (and long shot pick) for who I have winning Super Bowl LIV. Who do you have as your winner of the “big game”? After you read and get your advice from me, you can then place your bets over at one of the safest football betting sites for who you think will be the kings of the National Football League.
The New England Patriots have been absolutely incredible this season to land them at 8-0 thus far. Speaking of the great play, just check out the point differential: In total points scored, they’ve tallied 250 in their favor, while allowing just 51 against them, and if you didn’t know, they also have the No. 1 ranked offense and defense in the league. It’s truly been video game-like numbers for New England this season. That’s even more true when you look at the scores of each game, with all but one being a dominating victory: Steelers (W 33-3), Dolphins (W 43-0), Jets (W 30-14), Bills (W 16-10), Redskins (W 33-7), Giants (W 35-14), Jets (W 33-0), Browns (W 27-13). Now granted, the competition hasn’t been the best, but this is still Tom Brady and the undefeated New England Patriots that we’re talking about. You know, six-time Super Bowl champions in the Brady-Belichick era. Of course, they should be your favorite, and they’re definitely where my money is going. (And them going 16-0 as well, which is another huge bet at the moment, but we’ll get to that in another piece.)
No Drew Brees, no problem. In the second game of the season, the New Orleans Saints would lose their quarterback to a thumb injury in a 27-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Despite that, however, the Saints would still put up an undefeated 5-0 record en route to a 6-1 tally for when Brees returned from his injury. When he would make his comeback against the Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans would be absolutely lights out in a 31-9 thrashing of the Cards, but hasn’t their whole resume been lights out?: Texans (W 30-28), Rams (L 9-27), Seahawks (W 33-27), Cowboys (W 12-10), Buccaneers (W 31-24), Jaguars (W 13-6), Bears (W 36-25), Cardinals (W 31-9). Other than the loss against the Rams, the Saints have been incredible this season, and what they’ve been able to do without Drew Brees just shows you how good of a team this is. They could certainly beat the New England Patriots in a SBLIV matchup, but the road through the NFC will be a tough one. With that being said, the Saints are the ones at the top of that challenging field in the conference, and with the way they’re playing right now and having Drew Brees back in full health, this team could take the NFC and Super Bowl over the Pats — no questions about it.
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have been fantastic this season. With Rodgers in particular, he’s accumulated 2,234 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and has only thrown for two interceptions, while also racking up a 106.7 rating. With the Packers, they’ve put up a nearly-undefeated 7-1 record to put them in the lead for the NFC North division. As far as their Super Bowl chances are concerned, this team is just as legitimate as the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints, especially with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Another thing that the Pack has going for them is the competition they’ve played as well, it’s been hefty: Bears (W 10-3), Vikings (W 21-16), Broncos (W 27-16), Eagles (W 34-27), Cowboys (W 34-24), Lions (W 23-22), Raiders (W 42-24), Chiefs (W 31-24). Do not sleep on the Green Bay Packers. I repeat, do not sleep on the Green Bay Packers. This franchise could win yet another Super Bowl.
The San Francisco 49ers have been absolutely brilliant this season to land themselves with an undefeated 7-0 record and on top of the NFC West. Not only are they a winning football team, but they’ve been hammering over their opposition since the year started, putting up an absolutely flashy resume: Buccaneers (W 31-17), Bengals (W 41-17), Steelers (W 24-20), Browns (W 31-3), Rams (W 20-7), Redskins (W 9-0), Panthers (W 51-13). It seems to be that no matter who they play, they’ll run all over. Yeah, you had the close game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And you also had the contest against the Washington Redskins, but even then, the 49ers would shut out the Skins for a clean-slate victory. San Francisco is a legitimate threat to win the Super Bowl, and with the NFC already being tough before them being in the mix, the 49ers make that conference even more interesting to pay attention to come playoff time. This is a great football team right here who can definitely win it all.
They haven’t been the greatest this season, but the Dallas Cowboys have got the job done to put them in the lead of the NFC East division and placed at a winning 4-3 record. What has mainly killed Dallas this season has been their performance on the road. For the year, they’ve placed 1-2, but their 3-1 record at home is what has kept them afloat — that, and the fact that the Cowboys are also in an extraordinarily weak division where the next best team is placed at 4-4. Maybe a little overvalued, Dallas has shown us flashes of greatness throughout the season, but they’ve also been fairly inconsistent as well: Giants (W 35-17), Redskins (W 31-21), Dolphins (W 31-6), Saints (L 10-12), Packers (L 24-34), Jets (L 22-24), Eagles (W 37-10). As you see, they got off to a great start at 3-0, and then would fall back to .500 with a three-game losing streak. See what I mean? With that being the case, I can’t help but to see a little overvalue with the Cowboys here, especially in a tough NFC conference. Keep your money.
They might be without Patrick Mahomes right now, but the Kansas City Chiefs have held up at a solid pace without their franchise quarterback. For the year, they’ve tallied a 5-3 record and have achieved a 1.5 game lead in the AFC West division, and it’s weak at that, so Kansas City can certainly take advantage to win the crown with or without their quarterback (more on that later): Jaguars (W 40-26), Raiders (W 28-10), Ravens (W 33-28), Lions (W 34-30), Colts (L 13-19), Texans (L 24-31), Broncos (W 30-6), Packers (L 24-31). Yeah, the Chiefs have lost three out of their last four, but they’re also about to get Patrick Mahomes back in complete health. When that happens, Kansas City should return to the Chiefs that we’ve gotten accustomed to. At +1400, there’s actually quite a bit of value here, especially considering I think Kansas City is the only AFC team who can defeat the Patriots if Mahomes’ return goes smoothly — but as I’ve already mentioned, that’s a pretty big “if” coming off of a serious knee injury.
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