When Andrew Luck would announce his decision to retire at 29 years old from the National Football League, it would send the entire landscape of professional football in a spiral, especially the Indianapolis Colts.
Luck’s announcement would come with just under weeks to go until the regular season began, and the Colts were left scrambling to try and replace their franchise quarterback. That replacement would eventually be Jacoby Brissett, who did okay in his first game as the starting QB. Against the Los Angeles Chargers, he would throw 21-27, 190 YDS, 2 TD’s.
During a preseason contest between the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears, Adam Schefter of ESPN would break the news of Luck’s retirement. When that happened, the Colts fan base then immediately turned on him, booing the quarterback when they caught him on the sidelines. When the game was over, Luck would then confirm his retirement to the media and would cite his consistent injuries as the reason.
“I felt stuck and the only way out of it is to no longer play football,” Luck would tell the press. “It’s taken me away from the game.”
Luck leaves behind an accomplished career, being a first overall pick in the NFL Draft (2012) and making four Pro Bowls. In total, Luck would throw for a total of 23,671 career passing yards and 171 passing touchdowns.
Here’s the interesting thing about this entire scenario: Oliver Luck, who happens to be the father of Andrew Luck, is also the CEO and commissioner of the XFL, Vince McMahon’s reboot league that is set to launch in 2020.
The conversation has gotten so loud that it’s even produced a prop bet. Over at web-based sportsbook Bovada, they’ve released a set of odds on Andrew Luck’s future. As far as him returning to the NFL in the next two years, they have that placed at +500, while they have the XFL sitting with a +1500 figure. The favorite is the “neither” option sitting at a hefty -4000.
The reason why that option is so heavy is because when you look at Luck’s consistent injuries and the fact that he’s made nearly $100 million in his seven years in the NFL, it would be no surprise to see Luck never play football again. However, sports can sometimes become a circus, we’ve seen it recently with Antonio Brown and back in the 90’s with Dennis Rodman. With that being said, crazier things have happened. And if Luck did get the urge to return to the NFL, I’m sure the Indianapolis Colts would welcome him back with open arms.
With Andrew Luck retiring, he’s being forced to give up $58 million with three years left on his six-year extension that he signed back in 2016. As far as the Indianapolis Colts are concerned, they’re now being led by their backup-now-starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett. As a result, the Colts chances for the Super Bowl championship have dropped pretty significantly. For example, over at BetOnline, the odds for Indianapolis have dropped from +1600 to +5000 since Luck’s retirement.
Not just that, but there’s also been a major shift in their AFC South division odds, as well as their regular season OVER/UNDER win totals. And speaking of, let’s go over each their official Super Bowl futures odds, Regular Season OVER/UNDER Win Totals and AFC South Odds.
For the 2019 campaign, you could say that Indianapolis Colts fans were pretty excited and optimistic about things, especially considering there were Super Bowl expectations. Andrew Luck was going through yet another injury with his calf, sure, but nobody was prepared for what was about to come. They just thought he would miss a game, maybe two.
When the 2018 season was complete and all of the pundits were getting their way-too-early previews for 2019 ready, the Indianapolis Colts were high on most of the lists, with those hefty Super Bowl expectations once again being attached to the projections. With Andrew Luck, he would have the best season of his career putting up a total of 39 touchdowns and a career-high 67.3% competition percentage. On top of that, he was only sacked 18 times. All of this en route to leading Indianapolis to a double-digit 10-win season.
But when Andrew Luck retired and dropped out of the league, so did the Indianapolis Colts’ odds to win Super Bowl LIV. Before the retirement announcement, the Colts were sitting at 16-1 (+1600) to win the big game. Afterwards, Indianapolis would shoot all the way down to 50-1 (+5000). Just a stunning change in figures there, but that’s what losing your franchise quarterback can do to your, well, franchise.
Replacing Luck at the quarterback position is Jacoby Brissett, who is a fantastic backup, but let’s be honest here, he’s not starter quality. And he’s certainly no Andrew Luck. With the quarterback play being a significant decline from last season, the odds-makers were quick to catch on and shot them all the way down the table.
When the Indianapolis Colts achieved a double-digit 10-win season in 2018, the football betting sites would have them nearly at the double mark figure again for the 2019 campaign. Before Andrew’s Luck’s retirement, Indianapolis’ OVER/UNDER was placed at 9.5, and the OVER would be set at -125 odds. After Luck’s announcement, that number would then get shot down to 6.5, with a complete reversal with the OVER being set at +110. If you don’t know, this means the odds-makers are expecting a major drop off from the Colts this season.
With that being said, that OVER bet is very much worth taking and has a lot of profitability with it. Starting here in the 2019 season with the Colts’ first four games, three of them are against teams who didn’t qualify for last year’s playoffs. (They’ve started off 1-1 after two weeks of action.) Not just that, but 11 of Indianapolis’ games have them squaring off against teams who would finish with losing records last season. Again, it’s very much worth betting on the Indianapolis Colts to hit the OVER.
Despite not winning the AFC South championship last season, most in the landscape of the National Football League had the Indianapolis Colts as the best team in the division for 2019. Not only did they have Andrew Luck (in his prime) doing his thing at the quarterback position, but they literally had talent everywhere surrounding him — and young talent at that. Before Luck announced his retirement, the best NFL betting sites had the number at EVEN for the Colts to win the AFC South, but since then, the numbers have been knocked down to the very bottom at +450.
Even then, +450 is being generous to Indianapolis. With the quarterback position being so vital in the NFL, you would think the Colts figure would be more around +600, even higher than that. Brissett is a good quarterback, but as a backup, not a starter. You can’t expect him to go against the likes of the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans and expect that to go well. It’s just not.
In 2016, Andrew Luck was playing literally the whole season in pain, and this was because of a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder that would force him out of the whole 2017 campaign. Come to find out, it was that 2016 season that would lead Luck into an early retirement here in 2019, a never-ending cycle of rehab and pain that made him call it quits.
When the 2016 season was over, Luck would tell himself that he wouldn’t put his health in serious risk again of where it can effect him long-term, and this has been a situation that he’s been dealing with for four years now. This summer would be the time where he would finally pull the trigger.
Andrew Luck explains that it’s some kind of ankle injury that he’s been dealing with, and it’s even a mystery to him. As he puts it, it’s “a myriad of issues” that isn’t improving whatsoever. With that being the case, Luck felt that retirement was the only way he could escape from the constant injuries, the consistent pain and the seemingly always rehabbing.
Here was Andrew Luck’s full explanation concerning his retirement:
“This is not an easy decision. Honestly, it’s the hardest decision of my life. But it is the right decision for me. For the last four years or so, I’ve been in this cycle of injury, pain, rehab; injury, pain, rehab. And it’s been unceasing and unrelenting both in-season and offseason. I felt stuck in it. The only way I see out is to no longer play football. It’s taken my joy of this game away. I’ve been stuck in this process. I haven’t been able to live the life I want to live. And after 2016 when I played in pain and was unable to really practice, I made a vow to myself that I would not go down that path again. I find myself in a similar situation. The only way forward for me is remove myself from football and this cycle that I’ve been in. I made a vow to myself that if I ever did again, I would choose me in this sense. It’s very difficult. I love this team. I love my teammates, the folks in our building, the fans, the game of football. And as part of this team, and because of how I feel I know that I am unable to pour my heart and soul into this position. Which would not only sell myself short, but the team in the end, as well. And it’s sad. But I also have a lot of clarity in this. It’s been a difficult process.”
In total, here is the entire list of injuries that Andrew Luck would suffer from throughout six seasons in the National Football League:
When Andrew Luck’s announcement to retire was in full circulation in both the press and on social media, not only would it send shock waves across the league, but it would also bring up memories of Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson — other players who would also retire prematurely. And not just that, but it would also remind us of how dangerous the game of football can truly be and would get those discussions started again. But as we move on from this type of situation, again, you can’t help but to just say to yourself: “That’s football though, you signed up for it.” But maybe that’s just me. I don’t blame Luck for getting his money and dippin’ though before he really messes himself up.
Back to our money though: In total, there are four different prop bets concerning Andrew Luck and his retirement. Let’s go over each one, their odds and I’ll also provide you my betting predictions, including whether or not Andrew Luck will make a return to the NFL or launch a career in the XFL.
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